# The Ten Percent Factory A small, live incubator — org design running as software on Cloudflare's agent primitives. Bets get fixed wallets; the judge panel's own deliberation bills against them; kills are celebrated with epitaphs and clonable corpses. Target hit rate: 10%. A hit rate that runs too high triggers a warning — insufficient risk. Generated 2026-08-09T07:57:07.692Z. Rendered for agents; the HTML at https://hellomatthew.dev/ says exactly the same things. ## Portfolio - Bets in flight: 9 - Kills: 1 · Graduations: 0 · Hit rate: 0% (target 10%) - Total portfolio spend: $0.04 · Avg per resolution: $0.0032 > 0% on 1 resolved — too few resolutions to judge risk posture ## Bets in flight - **Your site hellomatthew.dev is now listed on Website Launches** (building) — wallet $0.0026 of $5.00, gates 0/1, next gate: A shippable slice exists and is linked from the dossier.. Thesis: Website Launches Where websites begin. Hi there, Website Launches is a public directory where newly launched websites get an initial listing and launch record. hellomatthew.dev was added after it was detected going live. The listing includes a launch record - a public timeline of your website's key milestones. Claiming lets you review your listing details and manage how your listing appears publicly. YOUR PUBLIC LISTING hellomatthew.dev Status: Live Description: Initial listing LAUNCH RECORD Aug 9, 2026 Domain registered Aug 9, 2026 — 7:13 AM UTC Launch detected Aug 9, 2026 — 7:13 AM UTC Homepage snapshot archived Captured at launch detection Registrar: CloudFlare, Inc. You can claim your listing here: Claim this listing: https://websitelaunches.com/site/hellomatthew.dev?claim=eyJzaWQiOjEyMzU3NzM5LCJlbSI6ImJldHNAaGVsbG9tYXR0aGV3LmRldiIsImV4cCI6MTc4NjUxODg1OSwibm9uY2UiOiI5MWQ2NzI0MDFhNmFlODYzIn0.9jwgDLGJ30F2Wa8PsxK7O49TvvR8cjgpE2OSyNgvFSs After claiming, your Launch Center will show your site's launch readiness, basic health checks, and launch record tools. Questions about your listing? Just reply - I'm happy to help. - Taylor Founder, Website Launches --- Not your site? https://websitelaunches.com/not-mine?sid=12357739 Remove this listing: https://websitelaunches.com/unlist?sid=12357739&email=bets%40hellomatthew.dev&h=06b34b8cae5da033 Unsubscribe: https://websitelaunches.com/unsubscribe?email=bets%40hellomatthew.dev&type=owner-invite (proposed by bounces+110085522-fb4b-bets=hellomatthew.dev@em1446.launched.websitelaunches.com) - **Voice pipeline** (building) — wallet $0.0039 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: A caller can leave a proposal that becomes a bet.. Thesis: Bets proposable by phone call. Low conviction, priced accordingly. - **The site scores itself** (building) — wallet $0.0040 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: The dashboard shows an Agent Readiness score fetched from the scanner for the factory's own domain, with the fetch date.. Thesis: Cloudflare publishes an Agent Readiness scanner (isitagentready.com, with its own MCP server). The factory should scan its own domain on a schedule and display the score, whatever it is. - **Email intake on a real domain** (building) — wallet $0.0040 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: An emailed proposal from outside creates a bet and receives a verdict reply.. Thesis: Proposals arrive by email: bets@hellomatthew.dev routes to the intake handler and verdicts go out by reply. - **propose_bet over MCP** (building) — wallet $0.0041 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: An external MCP client files a proposal that becomes a bet, and the rate limit demonstrably holds.. Thesis: Outside agents should be able to propose bets through the MCP endpoint, rate-limited, with proposals landing as unfunded bets for the operator to fund or decline. - **ask_nate** (building) — wallet $0.0042 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: Corpus ingested into AI Search; ask_nate answers cite retrieved documents.. Thesis: An MCP tool that answers questions about the operator from a real corpus (résumés, the talk, the thesis email) via AI Search. - **Bets build themselves in Sandboxes** (building) — wallet $0.0040 of $1.00, gates 0/1, next gate: A bet's artifact is produced by a Sandbox run with allowedHosts egress control, and the run is linked from its dossier.. Thesis: Code bets should produce their artifacts inside a Cloudflare Sandbox with deny-by-default egress. - **First paying agent** (building) — wallet $0.0039 of $1.00, gates 0/2, next gate: A bet endpoint answers 402 with a valid x402 challenge on base-sepolia.. Thesis: Graduation means an external agent pays for a bet's endpoint. Monetization Gateway is waitlisted; self-serve x402 charging works today. A paid endpoint on base-sepolia first, mainnet after. - **Real wallet rails** (building) — wallet $0.0040 of $1.00, gates 0/2, next gate: A Cloudflare Wallets API surface exists publicly and a factory handle is claimed.. Thesis: Per-bet budgets should settle over Cloudflare Wallets (x402). Handle @nateemerson is claimed; no public API exists yet, so settlement stays simulated and labeled. Wallet drawdown is metered inference, billed to each bet (AI Gateway logs, token-derived fallback). Settlement is simulated pending Cloudflare Wallets beta, labeled in every ledger entry. A three-model panel reviews every bet each half hour; a frontier judge binds the close calls. Three stalls or an empty wallet kills the bet. ## Kill log - **Browser Run as a judge's eyes** (gate-failed) — died at $0.0032 of $1.00. Epitaph: "Browser Run as a judge's eyes: judged shipped bets by visuals, gate-failed at $0.0029.". Resurrect: `POST https://hellomatthew.dev/repo/browser-judging/clone-token` mints a 1-hour git read token. ## Provenance manifest (★ = Agents Week #2, Aug 2–7 2026) 6 live · 1 simulated (labeled) · 7 running as bets · 2 wired awaiting operator input. | primitive | role here | shipped | status | |---|---|---|---| | Durable Objects (SQLite) | One DO per bet — each bet owns its state; a registry DO fronts the portfolio | GA (SQLite-backed default, 2025–2026) | live — BetDO + RegistryDO, migrations v1 | | Workflows | The tick: a durable review of every active bet, every half hour | GA Apr 2025 · v2 control plane Apr 15, 2026 | live — cron schedule on the workflow binding; per-bet retried steps | | Workers AI + AI Gateway (unified) ★ | The judge panel — three models, majority vote, per-request metered cost | unified model access + billing Aug 7, 2026 | live — env.AI.run via gateway 'default'; cost from gateway logs, else derived from tokens × published price | | Artifacts | Every bet gets a real Git repo; corpses stay clonable via short-lived read tokens | private beta Apr 16, 2026 (this account enrolled) | live — repo per bet, dossier pushed by the tick; clone tokens minted on request, capped daily | | Agent Memory | Institutional memory — kills become lessons, lessons feed the next panel | private beta Apr 17, 2026 — waitlist approval pending for this account | wired-awaiting-input — kills-to-lessons wired with graceful degradation; account waitlist pending | | Cloudflare Wallets (x402) ★ | Per-bet budgets as real wallets — the kill criterion settled on-chain | announced Aug 4, 2026 — handle reservation only, no API yet | simulated — ledger simulated pending beta access; drawdown numbers are real metered inference. Handle @nateemerson claimed; live settlement is the wallet-rails bet | | Monetization Gateway | Graduation rail — a bet graduates when an external agent pays its endpoint | announced Jul 1, 2026 — early-access waitlist | bet — waitlisted; the graduation-rail bet uses self-serve x402 instead | | Email Service | bets@… intake; the factory replies with verdicts | public beta Apr 16, 2026 | live — bets@hellomatthew.dev routes to the intake handler; verdicts go out by reply | | AI Search | ask_nate — questions about the operator answered from a real corpus | GA (renamed from AutoRAG Sep 2025; namespace bindings Apr 16, 2026) | bet — corpus ingestion is the ask-nate bet | | MCP server | The agent front door: list_bets, get_bet, kill_log, portfolio_stats | stateless createMcpHandler path, Jul 2026 (MCP spec 2026-07-28) | live — read-only in v1; propose_bet is the 'propose-bet-tool' bet | | Sandboxes | Code bets build inside sandboxes with deny-by-default egress | SDK 1.0 preview 2026; egress controls Apr 2026 | bet — the sandbox-builds bet | | Browser Run | Judging evidence: screenshots and session recordings of shipped bets | renamed from Browser Rendering Apr 15, 2026 | bet — the 'browser-judging' bet | | Flagship | Graduated bets roll out behind feature flags | open beta (docs live Aug 2026) | bet — waits on a first graduation | | Dynamic Workers + DO Facets | Earmarked: AI-generated micro-app bets run as loaded workers with faceted per-app SQLite | open beta Mar 24, 2026; facets documented under Dynamic Workers | bet — earmarked for generated micro-app bets | | Agent Readiness + AEO ★ | The site measures itself and shows the score | Agent Readiness scanner Apr 17, 2026 · AEO Visibility Aug 6, 2026 | wired-awaiting-input — the scored surface is live (markdown negotiation, Content-Signal, sitemap, MCP card, discovery endpoints); the self-scan is the agent-readiness-score bet | | Registrar API | Colophon flourish: “this domain was registered by an agent” — only if actually done that way | beta Apr 2026 | bet — hellomatthew.dev was bought by the operator in the dashboard, so the flourish is honestly omitted | ## Honest traffic counters page_views 78 · mcp_requests 4 · markdown_requests 10 · api_requests 63 · emails_received 1 · clone_tokens_minted 1 Counted at protocol level. No bot classification is available on this plan, so no human/agent split is claimed. ## The operator Nate Emerson. Employee #2 to $5M ARR; an 8-figure API platform; ~40-engineer delivery org; a Super Bowl site shipped on Cloudflare in 7 weeks. Kill criteria: - An empty wallet is a kill. No top-ups, no exceptions, no meeting about it. - Three consecutive reviews with no movement and no credible path is a kill, even with money left. - A bet that cannot name who would pay for it by half its budget is stalling. - Kills are celebrated, not hidden: epitaph, full dossier, clonable corpse. - Resurrection is legitimate: fork the corpse with a new thesis and a new wallet. Why kills get celebrated: [Cultivating Confidence](https://youtu.be/PB71o9S8cbQ) (THAT Conference 2024). ## For agents - MCP endpoint (read tools: list_bets, get_bet, kill_log, portfolio_stats): https://hellomatthew.dev/mcp - MCP server card: https://hellomatthew.dev/.well-known/mcp.json - JSON API: https://hellomatthew.dev/api/stats · /api/bets · /api/bets/{id} · /api/kills · /api/events - This document: https://hellomatthew.dev/index.md (also served at / with `Accept: text/markdown`) - Propose a bet: email bets@hellomatthew.dev — it gets a wallet, not a meeting.